The winds of change are upon us. The forces currently shaping Australian and global markets feel more whipsaw and shape-shifting than ever before and investors today must contend with a far broader set of variables.
As Livewire’s Chris Conway put it: "When I was coming up, admittedly many moons ago in markets, there was only three things that you needed to pay attention to have a handle on the macro, and that was inflation, interest rates, and growth. Now we have to worry about policy mistakes, housing, AI, deglobalisation and US exceptionalism, to name but a few."
So is it the same game with more moving parts, or is it genuinely more complex? That’s the question we put to our panellists at Livewire Live:
Diana Mousina, Deputy Chief Economist at AMP;
Damien Boey, portfolio strategist at Wilson Asset Management; and
Roy Keenan, co-head of Australian Fixed Income of Yarra Capital.
Please note this panel was filmed 22nd September, one week prior to the RBA's September board meeting announcement.
Timecodes:
00:00 - Introduction & Market Complexity Poll
01:05 - Is the RBA Risking Over-Tightening Rates?
03:04 - Inflation Persistence vs. Consumer Resilience
05:09 - What the Bond Market Signals for RBA Policy
06:52 - Predictions for the Upcoming September RBA Meeting
08:51 - Housing Market Outlook & Correction Risks
11:26 - Banking Buffers & Equity Valuations
15:18 - Government Debt, Deficits & Central Bank Independence
21:22 - Asset Allocation in a High-Deficit Environment
23:05 - The Impact of AI, Data Infrastructure & Global Trade
28:11 - Rethinking US Exceptionalism & Australian Opportunities
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