Ask most successful people how they got where they are, and the answer is usually some version of "good timing." Everyone else swears they earned it. We're terrible at seeing our own luck clearly, and even worse at realizing how much of it we could create.
In this episode, Drew and I get into why: the psychology that makes us deny luck even exists, and what changes the moment you stop pretending everything is earned.
We start with Warren Buffett - why a man worth tens of billions says the single most important thing that ever happened to him was where and when he was born. Then there's Napoleon, who picked his generals by skipping the résumé and asking one question: "Is he lucky?" And we brought in Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion who’s spent more than a decade studying decision-making, to explain why we keep confusing good decisions with lucky outcomes.
There's also a stretch on survivorship bias that'll make you rethink every success story you've ever heard.
Luck comes in three layers. And the research shows you have far more say over two of them than anyone ever told you.
If you want to take the hand you were dealt and play it better, this episode is for you.
Get your free episode guide: https://solvedpodcast.com/luck/
CHAPTERS:
Chapters
00:00:00 Introduction: Why Nobody Talks About Luck
00:00:12 Napoleon: The Boy Who Became Emperor
00:02:18 Spotting High-Leverage Opportunities
00:05:23 Acting Ferociously on Openings
00:09:01 Creating Loyalty and Invisible Advantages
00:11:11 The Statistical Impossibility of Napoleon's Success
00:12:54 Are You Lucky? Understanding Earth Luck
00:14:56 Richard Wiseman's Four Principles of Luck
00:16:17 Maximizing Opportunities and Surface Area
00:17:43 Trusting Your Gut and Informed Intuition
00:19:43 Optimism and Transforming Bad Luck
00:20:45 Personal Stories: How We Embody These Principles
00:34:40 Anxiety: The Enemy of Luck
00:40:10 Environment Over Personality
00:42:33 Moving to the Epicenter
00:44:52 The Poker Game That Changed Everything
00:46:06 Simple Ways to Increase Surface Area
00:48:57 Earth Luck as High-Leverage Decisions
00:52:07 Power Laws and Game Selection
00:58:06 Power Law Moments in History
01:00:12 Catching Waves: Positioning for the Next Revolution
01:01:59 The Heaven Luck of Our Generation
01:03:05 Recap and Preview: Moving to Human Luck
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