On Monday, CNN analyst Harry Enten flagged a truly surprising finding in a Fox News poll that had eluded our attention: Trump’s approval is nine points underwater in Texas, which he won by 14 points in 2024. That’s not all: The Fox poll, which shows Democrat James Talarico up by three points, finds Trump's approval at an astounding 18 percent among independents in Texas, with 50 percent disapproving strongly. That’s remarkable, especially given how key independents are in the Texas Senate race. All this comes as Trump unleashed a long tirade claiming “my REAL poll numbers” are “the best they have ever been.” Trump also bizarrely listed a long litany of accomplishments that were, well, entirely made up, showing he has zero intention to help his party by recalibrating. We talked to Democratic strategist Sawyer Hackett, who knows Texas and has worked on midterms. He explains why Trump’s standing with Texas independents is “absolutely shocking,” what the path to victory there looks like, where Talarico still must improve, and how numbers like these could open up other red states for Democrats.
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