A totally pointless debate is raging online at the moment as to who voted for Opportunity and whether that vote was skewed left or right.
And based on that, whether they should pick, if they get a chance, a left or right combo.
Obviously as we sit here there is no choice because even if they went left, the left still don’t have the numbers.
But that hasn’t stopped the angsty getting all riled up online.
So here is the theory; Opportunity did best in areas of the country where the left does well, namely Wellington and particularly Wellington Bays and Wellington North. Those two electorates gave Opportunity their biggest support.
Now for a start, and here is the critical flaw, just because you live in those electorates it doesn't mean you are a leftie. Until you ask every Opportunity voter what their political leaning is you are guessing. But that’s how we fill our time apparently.
The next problem - once you have assumed, as they have, that because the biggest support came in left-leaning areas, that means the party must go with Labour.
That then means you didn’t listen to a word the party actually said, which is they are centrist and want to work with whoever.
This is why their marketing is clever. Once Winston Peters aligned himself with National that left the true middle open. Opportunity are merely filling a gap in the market and to fill that gap they must be realistically seen as centrist.
The fact allegedly they are not is either a marketing fail on their part or too much second guessing by the voters.
And if it is the latter two things then happen:
1) The party is letting their supporters down,
2) The voters failed to get the message and/or ignored the message and second guessed the party as to what they were.
This is the trouble with middle parties, as Winston fond out in 2017 when he picked Jacinda. He has been trying to recover reputationally ever since.
A true centrist party has to realistically be able to go either way, which is probably why they should go right this time, because if they can do that and survive they stand a better chance in the long term.
To my eye they are quite obviously left and if they go left that merely confirms what a lot of us clearly think, and at that point their marketing advantage is blown. In 2029 they are competing with Labour and the Greens, not the wider market.
If they don’t play this well they will end up like the other minor players Alliance, United and the Maori Party, who come but then vanish.
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