In this episode of Protect the Pile, Hedgeye Asset Management portfolio managers R. Patrick Kent, Sam Rahman, Brooks Cutright, and Neil Howe unpack whether today’s AI frenzy looks more like 1999, the railroad bubble, or something entirely new. The group debates market concentration, hyperscaler CapEx, AI commoditization, private-market excess, and how practitioners should navigate momentum without ignoring bubble risk. They also dive into SpaceX’s IPO, Starlink’s real business value, and the far-out promises embedded in the space economy.
00:00 Welcome & episode setup
01:00 Market backdrop: SpaceX IPO day, Iran deal chatter, and risk ranges
02:16 Patrick’s macro notebook: quads, healthcare, rates, energy, and Mag 7
05:37 SpaceX IPO vibes and late-’90s market flashbacks
10:47 Neil Howe on AI as a utility and historical bubble parallels
15:03 Is this 1999? Valuations, IPO mania, and private-market excess
23:04 Why today’s AI bubble is different: incumbents, backlash, and politics
28:02 AI, railroads, monopolies, and the race to build the “God model”
34:16 How practitioners manage AI exposure, momentum, and exit signals
37:36 AI bottlenecks: networking, foundries, hyperscalers, and picks-and-shovels
47:06 IP risk, web content, real-world AI models, and the bullish compute case
52:08 SpaceX IPO deep dive: Starlink, lunar mass drivers, space data centers, and lockups
01:01:05 Final thoughts
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