This episode unpacks the current state of the U.S.-Iran conflict, broader dynamics in the Middle East, and the shifting U.S. role in the region.
Host:
James M. Lindsay, Mary and David Boies Distinguished Senior Fellow in U.S. Foreign Policy, CFR
Guest:
Steven A. Cook, Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies, CFR
We Discuss:
- Who, if anyone, is winning the six-month war with Iran, and how freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran's ability to menace its neighbors, and its incentives to pursue a nuclear weapon have all evolved.
- Why the extent of the damage to Iran's nuclear program remains unknown, and why Tehran now has every incentive to dash toward weaponization.
- How the war's decapitation strikes produced leadership change rather than genuine regime change, leading to a situation in which the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the hardest of Iran’s hardliners now call the shots in Tehran.
- Whether the supposed split between Iranian "moderates" and "hardliners" is real or a Western construct that makes the regime more intelligible.
- What President Donald Trump's "economic D-Day" is meant to achieve, and why it remains uncertain that economic isolation will lead to regime collapse.
- Whether U.S. bluster carries real costs, and how doubts about U.S. credibility have pushed Gulf partners to look elsewhere for their security.
- What the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement between Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey actually signals, and whether it represents an alternative to an American-sponsored regional order rather than a true Article 5-style pact.
- Why the United Arab Emirates was left out of the Mecca agreement, and what the rift between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh reveals about fractures within the Gulf.
- Where the region is headed as the U.S.-led Middle East order comes to an end, and whether a diminished U.S. role and greater regional agency is a good thing.
Mentioned on the Episode:
Steven A. Cook, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, Oxford University Press
Steven A. Cook, “The U.S.-Led Middle East Order Is Over. The Mecca Agreement Proves It.,” Council on Foreign Relations
Steven A. Cook, “After Iran, It’s Time for the United States to Leave the Middle East,” Foreign Policy
Marc Lynch, “The End of the American Middle East: Iran and the Last Gasp of a Failed Order,” Foreign Affairs
Robert Kagan, “Iran Unleashed,” The Atlantic
For an episode transcript and show notes, visit The President’s Inbox at: https://www.cfr.org/podcasts/presidents-inbox/six-months-of-war-with-iran
Opinions expressed on The President’s Inbox are solely those of the host or guests, not of CFR, which takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.
