"A good idea and a bad idea look very similar early on." David J Bland
David Bland, founder of Precoil and lead author of Testing Business Ideas with Alex Osterwalder, helped DuPont and its semiconductor spin-off Qnity build an experimentation capability that surfaces risk early and speeds up commit, correct and cut decisions. The work contributed to a 2026 IRI Innovation Excellence Award for Outstanding Innovative Culture. Across 35 real growth opportunities, DuPont saved over $12M by stopping weak projects and has so far generated about $24M from the ideas that passed their tests.
In this conversation, David reveals:
- How DuPont saved over $12M by stopping projects early, and earned about $24M from the ones that survived
- Why David opens and closes his keynotes with his own bad calls, including a kitty litter brand later sold for a billion dollars
- Why a leader should never facilitate their own team's assumptions mapping session
- How the assumptions map changed its labels three times before a whiteboard session with Alex Osterwalder at Stanford
- Why most business plans amount to "creative fiction in Excel"
- The leadership whiplash that drags companies between Six Sigma efficiency and innovation drives
- Dead Projects Day, the Halloween event where DuPont leaders dressed up to explain the projects they killed
- Why sales and legal belong in the room before the first experiment runs
- How to use AI as a sparring partner while keeping your critical thinking
Chapters:
00:00 AI As Sparring Partner
00:53 Innovation Leaders And Whiplash
04:00 Meet David Bland
09:47 Productive Failure And Assumptions
15:12 Leadership Swings And Efficiency
17:36 DuPont Case Study Origins
21:53 Big Bets And HIPPO Dynamics
23:48 Facilitating Assumptions Mapping
29:45 Evidence Labels Evolve
31:59 Business Plans Are Hallucinations
34:53 DuPont Derisking Results
39:20 Making Change Stick In DNA
42:28 How DuPont Built Capability
47:49 Socialise Wins And Kills
50:50 Bring Sales And Legal Early
52:56 Where To Find David Bland
Find David Bland at https://www.precoil.com and https://davidjbland.com
Read the DuPont case study: https://www.precoil.com/articles/case-study-dupont
About the Host: Aidan McCullen is the 2025 Thinkers50 Innovation Award recipient, keynote speaker on AI, disruption, innovation and change, host of The Innovation Show, and author of Undisruptable: A Mindset of Permanent Reinvention (Wiley). Learn more: https://theinnovationshow.io/about-aidan-mccullen
This series is brought to you by Kyndryl, who run and reimagine the technology systems that drive advantage for the world's leading businesses. With a unique blend of AI-powered consulting built on unmatched managed-service capability, Kyndryl helps leaders harness technology for smarter decisions, faster innovation, and lasting competitive edge. Learn more about Kyndryl and the Kyndryl Institute at https://www.kyndryl.com.
Subscribe to the Thursday Thought on Substack for a chance to win a copy of Testing Business Ideas, with thanks to Kyndryl: https://thethursdaythought.substack.com
About The Innovation Show: the Thinkers50-recognised podcast where square pegs find their place in a world of round holes, with conversations on disruption, innovation, change, transformation and leadership.
Website: https://theinnovationshow.io
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