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The Fed hiked 25 basis points. Your 30-year mortgage did not wait for permission. In this Liberty Lockdown breakdown, Clint Russell explains why long-term rates ripped toward 7.5% before Kevin Warsh’s FOMC even moved, how the 10-year Treasury — not the overnight funds rate — prices your house payment, and why the yen carry trade, Bank of Japan hiking, and a $40 trillion national debt are starving the bid for U.S. duration. He walks through the lock-in effect, frozen transaction volume, forced sellers on HELOCs and bridge debt, and the quiet path from originations drying up to a credit shock and banking contagion. If rates stick or grind toward 8%, affordability dies a second death, builders will not build, and price discovery finally hits the inventory sitting on the sidelines. This is the housing, rates, and dollar map — plus why he’s holding dry powder in T-bills instead of chasing record-high stocks and record-high homes.
0:00 You won the 3.5% mortgage lottery
0:28 Why only 35% of people under 35 own a home
0:48 The Fed hike everybody already priced in
1:18 Inflation, Hormuz, and the first Warsh hike
2:05 The Fed does not set your mortgage rate
2:48 The 10-year just made a 2007 high
3:20 7.2% to 7.5% in a week
3:55 The yen is in your house payment
4:30 Yen carry trade: the world’s ATM is clogged
5:05 Japan stops subsidizing Washington’s deficit
5:40 Carry unwind → Treasuries sell off → mortgages rip
6:05 Energy shock, $40 trillion debt, global duration strike
7:20 The bond market hiked first. The Fed is catching up
8:10 What 7.5% does to housing
8:40 The lock-in effect and tight inventory
9:30 Affordability dies a second death
10:30 Buyer-seller gap and a frozen market
11:10 Why builders will not save you
11:40 Forced sellers, HELOCs, and a bear market
12:00 Price discovery
12:20 Banks, originations, and hidden MBS losses
13:50 HELOCs, investors, and office vacancy
14:30 Credit shock: the market seizes without a default wave
15:20 Different movie, same genre
15:40 Contagion
16:00 The Fed sells gasoline
17:00 Inflation vs deflation vs the death of the dollar
18:20 Kalshi: Hormuz and Fed funds odds
20:00 Stagflation
20:40 Japan free money and 80% of foreign Treasury bids gone
21:40 Knocked out of the dollar system
22:20 7.5% rates, recession risk, $40 trillion rollover
24:00 T-bills now pay more than being a landlord
25:20 Why he expects price cuts — and why he won’t date them
27:00 Central banks hate deflation
28:00 Dry powder: T-bills and CDs over record-high stocks
28:50 $40 trillion and the long-term dollar blowoff
30:00 Terrible time to buy houses or stocks
31:00 Like, subscribe, Liberty LockdownNew Clip Channel, please subscribe! It's great: https://www.youtube.com/@UC_1E2DuUw3MJI-OiDVBNQjA Check out my show over on Fountain: https://www.fountain.fm/show/nUTYcMtl4yMuoKHljZWuBecome a supporting member of Liberty Lockdown here!: https://libertylockdown.locals.com/ Twitter: https://twitter.com/LibertyLockPodPickup AFAFO shirts over at https://erinnwaterdesign.com/collections/liberty-lockdownAll links: https://www.libertylockdownpodcast.com/Linktree: https://linktr.ee/libertylockdownAs always, leave a five star review on Spotify and Apple please and thanks!Liberty Lockdown presents a variety of opinions, sometimes opposing and controversial. They are not representative of the host of the podcast. Guests are encouraged to express their opinions in a safe and equitable environment.
