July 16, 2026 - Markets are pricing the war as though the biggest energy risk is simply whether the Strait of Hormuz opens or closes. Chase Taylor argues that the more dangerous scenario may be lasting damage to refineries, pipelines, export terminals, and other infrastructure that cannot reopen overnight. With semiconductor and memory stocks already experiencing violent drawdowns, leverage is beginning to reveal itself in unexpected places. A sudden energy shock could expose even more of it—spilling into equities, bonds, currencies, inflation, and consumer spending. The question is not whether the worst-case scenario is inevitable. It is whether portfolios are prepared for a risk that markets appear to be treating as though it barely exists.
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