Brian Szytel reports a modest down day in equities after all-time highs, with oil trending lower (WTI ~88, Brent ~100), a slightly flatter yield curve, and the 10-year around 5.28%. He cites limited economic news beyond FOMC minutes reaffirming a 25 bp hike and expectations for another hike this year, alongside a well-received ~40B 10-year auction. He describes a bifurcated backdrop: higher-for-longer rates pressuring rate-sensitive, long-duration sectors (real estate, BDCs, asset/alternative managers) while credit remains stable with subdued high-yield spreads, and the economy stays strong with full employment, high corporate margins, and inflation easing slowly. He highlights AI-driven productivity expectations as pivotal, advocates measured AI exposure, and says REIT dividends can hold and grow if holdings are selective and supported by rent growth, citing defensible real estate examples and past dividend growth through prior shocks.
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