The CIA’s plan for the Bay of Pigs was, in short, to land a brigade of exiles, hope the Cuban people spontaneously rose up, and call it a day. No backup plan. One in three odds of success, according to the Under Secretary of State’s own memo. Kennedy then cut the air strikes almost in half as an afterthought, and canceled the follow-up strikes at 11 PM the night the ships were already approaching Cuba…. which the guys on the beach didn’t find out about until they were looking up and wondering where the hell their air support was.

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