Suzanne Maloney on Whether Perpetual Conflict is New Normal for the Gulf

Nearly a month after a ceasefire, the US-Iran deal seems to have all but collapsed as both nations have slipped back into active conflict. On Sunday, Tehran announced that the Strait of Hormuz is once again closed—a move President Trump immediately countered, stating the waterway will remain open "with or without Iran." Since then, both the US and Iran have reportedly begun new attacks, and the President said the US will reinstate its blockade to become the "guardian" of the strait, even floating a controversial plan to charge commercial ships to ensure their safe passage. 

We are in a critical window where both sides are aggressively trying to redefine their leverage in the Persian Gulf region, yet neither has fully abandoned the negotiating table. The U.S. can't maintain its high-stakes engagement indefinitely. 

So are we right back to square one? Is this perpetual state of uncertainty the new normal for the Strait of Hormuz? What realistic leverage does Washington still possess on the nuclear front? And with senior Houthi leaders announcing their involvement, how does the collapse of this deal reverberate throughout the Persian Gulf region? 

Today on the show, Jason Bordoff discusses the current and unpredictable state of affairs in the strait, and how it could play out in the coming weeks and months, with Suzanne Maloney, the vice president and director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.

Suzanne's research focuses on Iran and Persian Gulf energy. She has advised Democratic and Republican administrations on Iran policy, including as an external advisor to senior State Department officials during the Obama administration and as a member of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's Policy Planning staff during the administration of George W. Bush. Earlier in her career, she served as Middle East advisor for ExxonMobil Corporation.

Credits: Hosted by Jason Bordoff and Bill Loveless. Produced by Mary Catherine O'Connor, Caroline Pitman, and Kyu Lee. Engineering by Gregory Vilfranc.