A firm and lasting peace treaty, a ceasefire, in or out of NATO, in or out of the EU, European or international peacekeeping forces, an unending slog, or Russian tanks in downtown Kyiv?

What are the realistic…and unrealistic…options for Ukraine as they enter the 4th year of the Russo-Ukrainian War of 2022?Is the best path for Ukrainian security instead a new security architecture based on Ukrainian power itself?

How do you create a framework that could produce a realistic peace, while giving Ukraine a deterrence from future conflict?

Using her recent article in Foreign Affairs, Ukraine Must Guarantee Its Own Security, as a kicking off point for our conversation on these and related topics returning to Midrats will be Emma Ashford.

Emma is a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy program at the Stimson Center, and the author of First Among Equals: U.S. Foreign Policy for a Multipolar World, forthcoming from Yale University Press.

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Summary

In this conversation, Sal, Mark, and Emma Ashford delve into the complexities of the Ukraine conflict, discussing historical agreements like the Budapest Memorandum, the implications of NATO membership, and the current geopolitical landscape. They explore the challenges of European defense strategies, the lessons from Finland's historical context, and the potential pathways to peace negotiations. The discussion emphasizes the need for Ukraine to build its own security capabilities while navigating the intricate dynamics of international relations.

Takeaways

  • The Budapest Memorandum's implications are still relevant today.
  • NATO membership remains a contentious issue for Ukraine.
  • European states have divergent threat perceptions affecting defense strategies.
  • The concept of 'Bluff and Pray' highlights European defense challenges.
  • Lessons from Finland's Winter War can inform Ukraine's strategy.
  • Ukraine must focus on internal capabilities for security.
  • The US presence in Europe influences European defense initiatives.
  • Negotiating peace involves complex territorial and sovereignty questions.
  • European defense production can align with Ukraine's needs.
  • The need for a unified European defense strategy is critical.

Chapters

00:00: Introduction and Context of the Ukraine Conflict
03:59: The Budapest Memorandum and Its Implications
06:41: NATO's Role and European Security Dynamics
11:55: European Military Capabilities and Collective Action Problems
18:25: Bluff and Pray: The Dilemma of European Deterrence
20:52: The Risks of European Military Engagement in Ukraine
28:10: NATO's Role in Ukraine's Security
32:45: Ukraine's Self-Defense and Historical Parallels
37:39: Models of Neutrality and Defense
40:20: European Defense Production and Cooperation
46:49: US Withdrawal Scenarios and European Responsibility
51:19: Negotiating Peace: Territory, Arms, and Finance





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