Despite a flurry of new tariff announcements—including up to 12.5% on global goods, Brazilian products, and potential future hits on Canada and Europe—the actual impact on the U.S. economy is surprisingly muted. With an effective tariff rate of just 11.1% and projected to rise only slightly by year’s end, the overall burden is down significantly since February’s Supreme Court rulings. Key exemptions on oil, Scotch whiskey, and Central American textiles are keeping rates low, while investigations into China and the EU continue unabated. The administration still aims to fulfill tariff promises, but revenue from current tariffs remains less than half of what it could have been under the struck-down policies—meaning deeper cuts or more tariffs would be needed to close the gap.
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