Stocks are trading at historic highs, with the CAPE ratio soaring past its century-long average—only matched by the dot-com bubble peak. Despite AI hype, strong earnings, and stock buybacks fueling the rally, extreme valuations signal potential trouble, as past surges above 30 have often preceded major crashes. Yet history still favors long-term investors: bull markets outlast bear markets by years, and over any 20-year window since 1900, the S&P 500 has always delivered positive returns.
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