Before Russia invaded Ukraine, Dutch intelligence was deeply divided: military spies doubted Putin’s move, while civilian analysts and foreign ministry experts were convinced an invasion was imminent — and had a secret source close to Putin that even the CIA and MI6 lacked. Tensions flared between agencies, with the AIVD’s cautious warnings ultimately shaping Dutch policy — even as the U.S. and U.K. pushed for caution. This clash reveals how messy, human, and high-stakes intelligence work really is — especially when the world’s fate hangs in the balance.

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