Aswath Damodaran's model puts Anthropic's intrinsic value near $1.5 trillion, while IPO talk runs as high as $2 trillion. Through a Graham-Buffett lens, we test the $1 trillion revenue and 9.74% cost of capital assumptions behind that gap, and what margin of safety means for frontier AI.


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Chapters

(0:00) Value in the AI Era

(4:08) Redefining the Tech Moat

(6:57) Path to $1 Trillion Revenue

(7:59) Key Financial Inputs

(9:43) Capital Allocation and Compute

(13:42) The Cost of Capital Delusion

(15:47) Historical Market Returns

(16:25) Capital Allocation and Compute

(17:23) Redefining the Tech Moat

(18:43) Governance and Regulation Risks

(19:59) Redefining the Tech Moat

(21:39) Governance and Regulation Risks

(22:39) Margin of Safety Trap

(25:33) Surviving Uncertainty

(27:15) The Cost of Capital Delusion

(28:35) Historical Market Returns

(30:25) Implied Market Returns

(31:43) P/E Paradox

(33:48) Hurdle Rate Trap

(37:12) The Cost of Capital Delusion

(40:40) Verdict for Long-Term Investors

(44:13) Intelligent Value Investing Tools

(44:39) Get the free apps


Full open-source research report: https://research.deepvalues.ai/insights/2026-11-03-anthropic-valuation-feedback-loop/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2


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• Run the numbers on any stock yourself, free: https://app.deepvalues.ai/?ref=podcast&src=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2-en

• Free Margin of Safety Weekly, every Saturday (guru moves, market temperature, the week's research; no account needed): https://app.deepvalues.ai/letter?src=spotify&ref=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2

• Is the market overvalued? Track it with Buffett Indicator (iOS): https://apps.apple.com/us/app/buffett-indicator/id6747404614

• The same market gauge on Android, Bubble Watch: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.luluventures.bubblewatch.android&referrer=utm_source%3Dspotify%26utm_medium%3Ddescription%26utm_campaign%3Dcompany

• Open-source research on 300+ companies: https://research.deepvalues.ai/?utm_source=spotify&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=company&utm_content=why_anthropic_s_ipo_is_overvalued_2

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