OPEC+ is pushing to pump 188,000 more barrels a day in September, signaling a bold move to flood the market after voluntary cuts—mostly on paper—since the Iran conflict disrupted exports. But here’s the twist: actual output is falling, as shipping chaos through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea attacks, plus drone strikes on terminals in Iraq and Kazakhstan and refinery disruptions in Russia, are crippling deliveries—even as official quotas climb. Saudi Arabia has the capacity, but export infrastructure worries linger. It’s a tense balancing act: paper targets rising, but real-world logistics still shaky. The message? “We’re ready when you are.”
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