Global tensions between the U.S. and Iran are sending oil prices soaring, triggering a ripple effect that’s pushing mortgage rates and Treasury yields higher—fueling inflation fears and reshaping investor bets. As oil spikes, bond yields climb as investors demand more compensation for future inflation, making bonds more attractive than stocks and potentially cooling equities this summer. The Fed may hold rates steady this week, but rising inflation could force hikes later—especially if Middle East hostilities persist. Markets are already pricing in that scenario, with longer-term rates climbing and investors eyeing opportunities to lock in higher yields before a potential pullback.
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