Professor Campbell Harvey, professor of finance at the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University and the inventor of the most famous recession indicator — the inverted yield curve — returns to The Julia La Roche Show for episode 219 to discuss the state of the economy, the yield curve, and what's ahead for U.S. growth.
Links:
DeFI and the Future of Finance: https://www.amazon.com/DeFi-Future-Finance-Campbell-Harvey/dp/1119836018 https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/faculty/campbell-harvey https://people.duke.edu/~charvey/ https://twitter.com/camharvey
Timestamps:
00:02 Introduction to Professor Campbell Harvey
00:51 BlackRock's "end of boom-bust cycle" thesis
04:15 Historical perspective on market cycles
06:14 Impact of wealthy consumers on economy
07:13 Role of technological innovation
11:37 U.S. leadership in innovation
14:31 Growth prospects and productivity potential
16:09 Post-election growth outlook
24:56 U.S. debt and deficit challenges
28:16 Social Security sustainability issues
32:51 Inverted yield curve indicator discussion
40:11 Impact of technological innovations
45:21 Federal Reserve policy critique
50:20 Distortions from Fed's zero-rate policy
54:18 Future consequences of Fed decisions
59:40 Closing thoughts on U.S. prospects
