James Kostohyrz argues there’s a real chance that Israel and Iran are going to war. Like bombs and missiles. Real war. If so, what’s Iran’s first move? Shut down the Strait of Hormuz and immediately block 20% of the world’s oil production. Oh crap. What would that mean for oil prices? It’s a scary yet possible scenario we are facing. Horrifying with huge ramifications for oil prices. James argues it’s not priced into today’s crude prices.
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00:00 - Intro 01:52 - How Anas Makes Money 03:09 - Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices 07:10 - Impact of Middle East War on Oil Prices 11:29 - Iran's Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz 17:59 - Iran's Economy and Potential Regime Change 27:46 - Public Executions in Iran 28:40 - Israel's Regime Change Policy 29:40 - Likelihood of Regime Change in Iran 32:53 - US Shale Revolution Insights 34:00 - Overconfidence in US Shale Production 36:20 - Asymmetric Risk/Reward in Energy Sector 40:00 - Market Strategies for Investors 43:53 - Israeli Perspectives on Regional Issues 51:54 - Trump Administration's Potential Actions 58:05 - Scenarios for War Outcomes 1:00:50 - Potential Peace Deal Scenarios 1:02:44 - Iran's Nuclear Program and Israeli Strategy 1:05:50 - Trump’s Iran Policy and Diplomacy Prospects 1:10:05 - Israel's Threat from Iran's Proxies 1:11:02 - Ukraine's Role in the Conflict 1:19:10 - Market Apathy Towards Geopolitical Risks 1:20:17 - Contact Information for Teddy 1:21:10 - Recent Changes in Israel 1:23:06 - October 7, 2022 Events
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