Consumer confidence collapsed in March, at the same time data on services industries showed much the same. This dramatic loss of momentum is coming up seemingly everywhere, to the point it has Wall Street taking the R-word more seriously than at any time since 2020. Not for nothing, that's what some of these datapoints are looking like.
Eurodollar University's Money & Macro Analysis
Conference Board Consmer Confidence March 2025 https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence
Philly Fed March 2025 Nonmanufacturing Business Outlook Survey https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/nbos-2025-03
New York Fed Business Leaders Survey https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/business_leaders/bls_overview.html
Chicago Fed Survey of Economic Conditions (CFSEC) https://www.chicagofed.org/research/data/cfsec/current-data
Richmond Fed Fifth District Survey of Service Sector Activity https://www.richmondfed.org/region_communities/regional_data_analysis/surveys/service_sector
CNBC DoubleLine’s Gundlach sees more risk coming along with greater chance of recession https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/20/doublelines-gundlach-sees-more-risk-coming-and-greater-chance-of-recession-.html?qsearchterm=gundlach
CNBC The probability of a recession is approaching 50%, Deutsche markets survey finds https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/24/the-probability-of-a-recession-is-approaching-50percent-deutsche-markets-survey-finds.html
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