Christofer and podcaster Ben Chugg speak about probability and prediction in this episode of Do Explain. They discuss Pascal's mugging, bayesian decision theory, historicism and cliodynamics, AI-risk, immortality, moral cluelessness, and other related topics.Ben Chugg is a research fellow at Stanford law school. He has a background in math and computer science and, along with Vaden Masrani, hosts the increments podcast. He also writes insightful philosophy articles at Medium.Website: https://benchugg.com/Medium: https://benchugg.medium.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/BennyChuggPodcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/increments/id1514221797Vaden Masrani's article series against Longtermism:https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/82awH6SZDtuHxxzoG/a-sequence-against-strong-longtermismTimestamps:
(1:54) - Pascal’s mugging
(9:32) [TQ] - What is the proper use of probability?
(20:22) [TQ] - Would you bet that humans will land on Mars by 2030?
(25:02) - Cliodynamics
(34:06) - Chris and Ben psychoanalyse each other
(36:37) [TQ] - What are your thoughts on racism against AI?
(42:16) - Should we want to be immortal?
(49:14) - The importance of solving mental health
(52:40) - Is there meaning to be found in suffering?
(59:30) - The value of loss
(1:05:25) - Moral cluelessness and ‘longtermism’
(1:15:11) - How Effective Altruism could be improved
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