On today’s show we are talking about demographics and migration. This is a topic you’re going to hear a lot more about in the coming weeks and months. Demographics is like a law of physics when it comes to real estate investing. It’s like gravity. It’s no surprise that fertility rates are well below the rate required to maintain population constant.
If you want to examine at what declining population looks like, you only need to look at Japan. Japan’s fertility rate has been below the minimum 2.1 required to maintain population constant for a long time. Japan’s population has been declining sharply for the past 15 years. There are now 11M empty, vacant homes in Japan.
So when we look at our future, we need to look at those places in the world where people have walked before us. Now some people are quick to dismiss the comparison. After all, Japan is nothing like North America.
We tend to buy into the narratives that promote investing. We need to be very mindful of oversupply. When oversupply happens in a market, and when demand drops, bad things happen.
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