How will the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar affect Israel's security and regional stability? What are the implications for the 101 hostages still held by Hamas?

Join us as AJC Jerusalem Director Lt. Col. (res.) Avital Leibovich and AJC Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer Jason Isaacson discuss the Israeli Defense Forces' recent elimination of the terror leader responsible for orchestrating the October 7 attacks and thousands of deaths. They’ll break down the impact of the unfolding situation and what comes next. 

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Transcript of Conversation with Jason Isaacson and Avital Leibovich:

Manya Brachear Pashman:  

Last week, Israeli Defense Forces killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 terror attacks. His death comes two months after the murder of six hostages who he had been using as his human shields. What comes next? How will Sinwar's death impact the dynamics within Hamas and the broader conflict between Israel and other Iran-backed proxies? What are the potential implications for Israel's security and regional stability? And what does this mean for the 101 hostages still being held by Hamas? 

For answers to those pressing questions, AJC welcomed its Jerusalem director, Lt. Colonel Avital Leibovich and Chief Policy and Political Affairs Officer Jason Isaacson, for an in-depth analysis of the unfolding situation. Here's a portion of that conversation. 

Jason Isaacson:  

Thanks very much. Before we begin our discussion, Avital, please allow me to again express to you, my and all our AJC colleagues and supporters' gratitude for your consistent availability throughout this difficult, dangerous period, to brief the AJC family on the challenges that Israel faces, the trauma that Israel suffered on October 7, on and onward, and the remarkable resilience of the people of Israel in the face of terrorism. Allow me also to wish you and your family and our AJC colleagues in Jerusalem a healthy and, let's hope, a more peaceful New Year. 

We are meeting now one week after a major development, perhaps even a turning point in Israel's necessary war against Hamas, the killing of the terrorist organization's leader, the murderous mastermind of October 7, Yahya Sinwar by the IDF in Rafah in southern Gaza. I want to hear your thoughts on the ramifications of that successful operation, which has been praised by the US and other world leaders. But first, let me ask you two questions.

First, how was the IDF able to finally track down this most-wanted war criminal. And second, how did Sinwar's elimination figure in Israel's set of priority objectives for the self defensive campaign that it has been conducting in Gaza?

Avital Leibovich:  

Thank you, Jason, for your kind opening words, and it's always good to be with you here on another what I think will be an interesting session for our listeners. So it was the day of October 16, few days ago, IDF troops, actually reserve units, were working in a neighborhood in Rafah called El Sultan neighborhood. This is approximately one kilometer from Israel, so it's a relatively short distance, they have identified. 

These soldiers have identified three suspicious figures, between moving from one area to another, between buildings. And they fired towards the suspects, and then the group split into two. Two of them stayed in one area and another one stayed in another building. And in order to make sure that buildings are not booby trapped, so the forces are not endangered, what the IDF often does, it sends a drone with a camera inside the building, searching and checking out to see who is exactly there, and then they saw on a couch in the corner of a living room.

This was, by the way, a very fancy villa in this neighborhood. They saw a figure sitting there, with his head covered, with his face covered, and armed with a weapon, with grenades, and they fired. They understood that this is a terrorist, and they fired towards that person. 

Because, again, there was danger of the amount of explosives that were placed in this specific house, it took only 24 hours until the forces return and then search the house. When they got to this terrorist sitting on the arm chair, they suddenly realized that it looked very similar to Sinwar. But in order to check, you know whether it was Sinwar or not, they had to take a DNA sample from one of his fingers. And Sinwar has been in Israeli prisons for many years, and therefore his DNA samples is already there. So it took a few more hours, and then it was identified, finally, as Yahya Sinwar.

And of course, it was a big press briefing announcement by the Prime Minister, by the army and so on. What else was found on his body was the following: a small gun, a big rifle, flak jacket filled with different kinds of grenades, 40,000 shekels, which is equivalent of something like $12,000 in cash, a passport--of someone else--an UNWRA certificate of another person. Another identity. And that's more or less what was found. 

The two others that split from him and went to another house were actually his bodyguards. Later on, when the army searched deeper, it reached a conclusion that the tunnel that six hostages were held in and were murdered viciously by Hamas just six weeks before, were just a few 100 meters from where Sinwar was, and they also found out that actually they served as human shields for Sinwar until he escaped. So basically he was running from one place to another until he was found that day, 16 of October in that building.

Jason Isaacson:  

How high on the list of Israel's military objectives in Gaza was the elimination of Sinwar?

Avital Leibovich:  

So, yeah, you can imagine that, since he's the number one terrorist of Hamas, and he is the mind behind October 7, obviously he was ranked very high on the list of Most Wanted. I can say that his brother, Muhammad, is still on that list. And Israel has announced already that it will hunt Muhammad as well. And I think that there was a ray of light on October 17. It was exactly when it was announced officially that Sinwar was eliminated. I think every Israeli home was as much as we could under the circumstances express joy that Sinwarwas gone.

Jason Isaacson:  

You could imagine supporters of Israel around the world and our country, but all over, I think, shared that sentiment as well. But let's talk about the ramifications now of Sinwar's death for Hamas and also for the Islamic Republic of Iran, which has provided money, weapons training guidance to Hamas. I have a few related questions. First, Hamas has already put forward the claim that its fight continues, that it isn't relinquishing its hold on Gaza. Can Hamas still legitimately make that claim, that it is in control in Gaza?

Avital Leibovich:  

So I think that if we're looking at, you know, the comments from all over the world regarding primarily the terror groups in Iran, we see a lot of support for the way of Hamas.. Sinwar was actually painted as a shahid, a martyr, as someone who fought until the very last minute, who act in a very brave way. In other words, it's some kind of glorification for Sinwar, but also for Hamas, in another way. I have to say that even the PLO, the Executive Committee of the PLO actually offered condolences for the death of Sinwar, which was also quite disturbing, I have to say. 

And Abu Mazen's party Fatah, one of the members of the Fatah, the guy by the name of Abbas Zaki, said that Sinwar has chosen, and I'm quoting, "An exit worthy of his heroism and the heroism of his people." So that's the mood in the Palestinian Street, and that's the mood among the other Arab terror groups, Muslim terror groups, extremists in Iran, in Hezbollah and other places. So the question is, what are now Israel's immediate goals in Gaza following Sinwar's death. So Israel has been concentrating in one main area, and this is an area very close to the envelope of Gaza. It's what we call northern part of Gaza, primarily an area called Jabalia. 

Jabalia is a place that, according to the Israeli intelligence, unfortunately, there has been a big crowding of Hamas terrorists who are taking shelters in schools or in local civilian facilities where civilians are. So Israel has been trying to encourage the population to go out of this part of Gaza, northern Gaza. It has been doing so by leaflets, by phone calls, by messages on their phones and so on. The problem was, the challenge was with this situation, that Hamas prohibited the population of leaving. But when Sinwar died, this has changed, and we saw two interesting things in the Palestinian Street in Gaza. Number one, people have started to move from the northern part of Gaza. Actually, 20,000 people already relocated from that area. We saw 150 Hamas terrorists turn themselves in. 

But we also saw, Jason, another thing which we have not seen in a long time. And these are multitudes of Gazans which are not being afraid to speak to the camera with their faces totally uncovered, exposed and cursing Hamas and cursing Sinwar and wanting a better future for themselves. So this is actually, this phenomenon is actually growing more and more. So while Israel is working in Jabalia, there's a still part of the army which is working in Rafah, in the Rafah area, Tel Sultan is one of the neighborhoods, as we mentioned before. So it's still very tactical. There are still a lot of rockets that are flowing in from from Gaza. We're not at the end, at this point of time. And if you'd like, we can dig into the numbers of you know, the achievements that Israel has in Gaza. 

Jason Isaacson:  

Yeah, stay on this for a second. This is fascinating. I mean, it sounds like what you're sayingis that the kind of the culture of fear that Hamas has used to basically make it impossible for Palestinians to think of an alternative form of governance or an alternative relationship with Israel, that culture is at least been been damaged by the death of Sinwar, not eliminated, probably, but certainly weakened, which does give you some hope that there can be a day after in which there's a very different governing structure, a very different mentality in that exists in Gaza.

Avital Leibovich:  

About the whole part, I'm not so sure. I have to say I want to be very hopeful, but we're not there yet. And I'll tell you why.

Jason Isaacson:  

Long term, long term.

Avital Leibovich:  

Long term, for sure, I'll tell you, but I want to be more concise in my answer, because you know, one of the things I'm sure people are asking themselves, is: is Sinwar replaceable? So I want to share with you six figures that are the potential list for replacing Sinwar. Number one is Khaled Mashal, is a well known personality. He's currently the head of what we call the external Hamas leadership. As you know, Hamas has two other countries, which they are based in. Qatar in Turkey. He served also as the predecessor of Sinwar, and he lives in Qatar. That's number one. 

Number two, Musa Abu Mazug. It's another known figure. He was in Sinwar's position a long time ago. He lives in Qatar as well. Then we have Muhammad Al-wish. He is the head of the Hamas Shura Council. He's considered, actually a shadow figure, and does not appear in public too much, but he deals with Hamas policy, and he lives in Qatar. He's known for his connections with the Iranians. The next person is Khalil al Haya. He is the deputy head of the political bureau of Hamas. Actually, he is the deputy of Sinwar. I would say he's more kind of a gray kind of figure. He lives in Qatar. He also has some involvement on ceasefire and negotiation talks, release of the hostages. 

And then we have Muhammad Nazal, another member of the Hamas political bureau, one of the most prominent spokespeople for the Hamas terror group. And the last one is Zaher Jabarin, member of the Hamas political bureau since 2021 and he's also in charge of the Judea Samaria area, or the West Bank, and he lives in Turkey. So these are the potential replacements for Sinwar. And the question here really remains, who will take the lead, whether it will be another figure from Gaza, or will it be an external figure? 

And of course, each of the options has its own consequences. So if we're looking at Qatari based Hamas leaders, which have which are more prone to pressure from the US or from other countries. That's one reason to be optimistic vis a vis maybe a future deal with the hostages. But if we're looking at someone from Gaza, or someone from the West Bank will come to Gaza, then I think we're looking at more of the same kind of scenario. So this is where we are in terms of the current situation in Hamas and Hamas leadership. Let's see what conclusion they will reach. 

Jason Isaacson:  

Sinwar's brother is not considered in line for promotion?

Avital Leibovich:  

So you know, the opinions here vary. There are those who say that since he's hunted by Israel, then he will not have the capability to deal with it. There are others that say that he is a natural replacement. But I gave you the list on purpose so you can understand that the options are not just one or two people, but more than that.

Jason Isaacson:  

So let's talk about what the implications of Sinwar's death are for the fate of the hostages. It's been over a year. There are 101 still held, many of them no longer alive. We understand a desperate situation in brutal captivity held by Hamas. What AJC was hearing before the death of Sinwar, when we were having meetings on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly with people who had intimate knowledge of the negotiating process with Hamas,was that there had been no response for a month from Sinwar on the possibility of a hostage release-ceasefire deal. Does the death of Sinwar make it harder, make it easier to be able to resume negotiations? What is your sense? 

Avital Leibovich:  

So yeah, that's the big question. The big question is, now, who is in control? Because with Sinwar gone, obviously Hamas in Qatar will have the capability to influence more. He was the main barrier to any deal that was proposed. That's the reason that a few days ago, earlier this week, the head of Shabaq Secret Services was rushed to Egypt with some kind of an offer. And actually, when Secretary Blinken just ended his visit a few hours ago in Israel, what he said next to his plane before he left was about his, I would say, strategy for the potential hostage deal. 

And the strategy says that, instead of going for the big deal of 101 hostages with stages, you know, being released in different stages, let's try to feel the water. And let's say we are talking about a smaller deal with a minimal amount of time for ceasefire, with just a few hostages that will be released. So in other words, not a very threatening deal, but something to work with. And here again, the question is, if the Hama leadership in Qatar will be able to go along with this kind of deal, I think we're in a very, very narrow window of opportunities. 

And I think this is the reason why Secretary Blinken isnot leaving the area yet, and he's continuing from one Arab capital to another. I know that he is in Riyadh now, and he's still continuing to other areas tomorrow as well. So that really remains the question. Whether the leadership of Hamas in Qatar will have the capability to lead a deal, even a smaller deal. If that will come across, then we can open the window wider and we can shoot for a bigger deal. You're right. 

There are 101 hostages held in horrible conditions, terrible conditions. Some of the bodies, you know, Jason, that were retrieved to Israel, were weighed. And a girl who is 24 years old, was weighing 36 kilograms.That equals to a weight of a third grader, something like that. So we do understand that it'severy day that passes is critical. The estimation is that there are 44 hostages which are no longer living. But the number may be higher because the intelligence information isas you know, not 100%.

Jason Isaacson:  

Thank you, Avital.

Manya Brachear Pashman:  

To listen to the rest of their conversation, head to the link in our show notes, and if you missed last week's episode, be sure to tune in to the conversation between my colleague Alexandra Herzog and author Aliza Lavie about her latest book, "Iconic Jewish Women."

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