Friday’s stagflation fears

Monday 31st March 2025

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This week will almost certainly be dominated by the implementation of auto tariffs into the US and the announcement of further tariffs on ‘Liberation Day’ on Wednesday. Whether it’s the impact of tariffs or not, consumer spending has slowed and inflation expectations rising in data that was out for the US on Friday. Yet labour data has been holding up so far - not what you would see in a stagflation economy. NAB’s Ray Attrill says we could see a delay in cuts from the Fed. Certainly Mary Daly from the San Francisco Fed was saying on Friday that she’s not comfortable starting any kind of rate path declines right now. The RBA will also stay on hold on Tuesday as they wait for signs that inflation is contained in an increasingly uncertain global economy.

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