Fantasy Football and Dynamic Baselines: New Tools for Impact Assessment

In Episode 112 of Bionic Planet, titled "Fantasy Football and Dynamic Baselines: New Tools for Impact Assessment," we unpack the often misunderstood concept of dynamic baselines and its origin in synthetic controls, using fantasy football as an analogy.

The episode begins with a clear and relatively simple explanation of dynamic baselines, which have emerged as a valuable tool in climate finance. Unlike traditional static baselines, which rely on fixed reference points, dynamic baselines adapt to changing conditions and provide a more accurate measure of impact. We discuss the importance of data and the need for robust methodologies to ensure that we can effectively attribute changes in deforestation and other environmental metrics to specific interventions.

Our guests for this episode are Lynn Riley from the American Forest Foundation and David Schoch from TerraCarbon, both of whom have played pivotal roles in advancing the application of synthetic controls in carbon markets. They share insights from their work on the Family Forest Carbon Program, which aims to engage small family landowners in sustainable forest management practices. Through their collaboration, they have developed methodologies that not only improve the accuracy of carbon accounting but also empower landowners to adapt their practices based on real-time feedback.

Throughout the episode, we examine the challenges of establishing effective baselines in diverse contexts, particularly in the United States. We highlight the significance of the Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data, which provides a rich source of information for modeling deforestation risk and assessing the impact of various interventions. The conversation also touches on the importance of addressing confounding variables and ensuring that methodologies are applicable across different forest types and ownership structures.

As we wrap up, we reflect on the broader implications of dynamic baselines for climate finance and the potential for these innovative approaches to drive meaningful change in forest management. By fostering a more responsive and data-driven framework, we can better understand the impacts of our actions and work towards a more sustainable future.

Join us for this engaging episode as we bridge the worlds of sports and environmental science, uncovering the lessons that can be learned from both fields in our quest to navigate the Anthropocene.

00:00:00 - Introduction to Bionic Planet and Episode Overview
00:01:03 - Justin Fields and the NFL Draft Dynamics
00:02:14 - Caleb Williams vs. Justin Fields: A Season Comparison
00:04:27 - Troy Aikman on Rookie Quarterback Struggles
00:05:53 - Sam Darnold's Journey Through the NFL
00:06:58 - Kurt Warner's Unlikely Rise to Success
00:07:48 - Connecting Sports Performance to Climate Impact Assessment
00:08:31 - Challenges in Measuring Success in Climate Finance
00:09:12 - Dynamic Baselines vs. Traditional Baselines
00:10:32 - Introduction of Guests: Lynn Riley and David Schoch
00:11:18 - Overview of the Family Forest Carbon Program
00:11:59 - The Green Municipalities Program in Brazil
00:12:53 - Evaluating the Impact of the Green Municipalities Program
00:13:58 - Synthetic Control Method Explained
00:15:30 - Causal Inference and Its Importance
00:16:52 - Fantasy Football as an Analogy for Synthetic Controls
00:19:00 - Comparison of Real and Synthetic Outcomes
00:20:58 - The Role of Data in Impact Assessment
00:21:31 - Discussion on the Synthetic Control Method Paper
00:22:30 - David Schoch's Contributions to the Research
00:25:05 - Weighting in Synthetic Control Methodology
00:26:32 - Eliminating Uncertainty in Climate Finance
00:28:13 - Linking Methodologies to Improved Forest Management
00:30:59 - Data Sufficiency and Methodology Applicability
00:31:39 - Engaging Small Landowners in Carbon Markets
00:33:43 - The Role of the U.S. Forest Service Data
00:35:41 - Public Consultation and Methodology Development
00:36:09 - Interventions for Improved Forest Management
00:38:36 - Risk Sharing in Carbon Credit Projects
00:40:56 - The Importance of Monitoring and Feedback
00:42:05 - Evolution of the Family Forest Carbon Program
00:50:07 - Challenges in Data Collection and Stakeholder Engagement

1. "Bionic Planet is the longest-running program in any medium devoted to navigating the Anthropocene, the new epoch defined by man's impact on Earth." - 00:00:10

2. "Football fans, like all sports fans, love arguing about who is better and who's just lucky." - 00:01:25

3. "Different people, different circumstances. And how do you tell who's better?" - 00:06:04

4. "We can restore it. Make it better, greener, more resilient, more sustainable. But how?" - 00:08:09

5. "Dynamic baselines adapt to shifting conditions and update more frequently." - 00:09:34

6. "The fundamental concept of synthetic controls is something we all use every day." - 00:16:52

7. "To see if an intervention works, you can synthetically model a control unit or an imaginary city where the variables are similar." - 00:16:09

8. "The ultimate goal in both cases is comparison." - 00:19:00

9. "It's not that the introduction of these methods eliminates uncertainty, but it did eliminate an important source of uncertainty and confounding." - 00:26:42

10. "There's always going to be a gap between a scenario that you model and what happens in real life, because no models are perfect." - 00:46:45