EP320 - News, First Half Recap, Early Holiday Preview

http://jasonandscot.com

0:23 Welcome Back After Hiatus 2:51 Upcoming Events in Retail 7:28 GroceryShop 16:02 Retail Growth Trends 21:28 Concerns for Holiday 2024 30:27 The De Minimis Provision 40:27 TikTok's Impact on E-commerce

In this episode of The Jason and Scot Show, we discuss the current state of retail and e-commerce.

We analyze macroeconomic factors impacting the retail landscape, noting a 3.4% growth in core retail and a maturation of e-commerce, dominated by giants like Amazon and Walmart. We address consumer sentiment heading into the holiday season and the potential influences of the upcoming election and interest rate changes.

The episode also covers the role of AI in enhancing personalization experiences, challenges faced by dollar stores, and supply chain issues. We conclude with insights into Amazon’s recent earnings and their strategies to engage younger consumers through TikTok Shops.

Join your hosts Jason "Retailgeek" Goldberg, Chief Commerce Strategy Officer at Publicis, and Scot Wingo, CEO of GetSpiffy and Co-Founder of ChannelAdvisor as they discuss the latest news and trends in the world of e-commerce and digital shopper marketing.

Download the complete 54 page deck of all my insights from the US Dept of Commerce Retail Data for the first half of 2024 here https://rgeek.co/retail2024

Transcript
[0:23]
Welcome Back After Hiatus
Jason
 
[0:23]Welcome to the Json and Scott show this is episode 320 being recorded on Monday september 16th 2024 I'm your host Jason retail gee Goldberg and as usual I'm here with your co-host Scott Wingo.
Scot
 
[0:38]Hey Jason and welcome back after a very long time, Jason and Scott show listeners Jason our last show was an early May so it's been about a little over a 4-month hiatus and when people ask me I always blame you do you blame me.
Jason
 
[0:57]I do blame you and I'm bitter because in my mind. Nobody's really complaining to you but like I I've gone called out on stage by like I've I've been heckled by people that are like what are you going to do a new show.
Scot
 
[1:15]It's part of our it's it's a Nintendo like strategy where you you dribble you know if you could really constrain Supply scarcity that drives demand so yeah.
Jason
 
[1:25]Yeah it it we are we are playing 3 dimensional chess in a world of checkered players.
Scot
 
[1:31]Exactly the the real reason is as Chief digital Innovation retail and payments and grocery officer your title's gotten bigger and your your more famous your allies on a plane I can never record because I'm like how about now he's like Paris how about now Australia how about now India so you've been flying all over the world.
Jason
 
[1:52]I sadly I have been it does feel like travel is back there there have been more International trips this year than any year before coid so I I can I can only partially deny that accusation.
Scot
 
[2:08]Cool well we're glad that we have you here for for an hour give us an update what are you any uh show you know what's going on out in the world of retail as you've been expanding the globe for the Json and Scott show.
Jason
 
[2:20]Yeah it's been another Super interesting year for retail we'll we'll certainly get into some of what we think are the key topics that have been planned out this year but I have attended a bunch of events I I can't even remember which ones where since this this last show visited a bunch of customers out in the field which is always great learning new things from them
[2:51]
Upcoming Events in Retail
Jason
 
[2:40]but the upcoming show is in early October is grocery shopping in Las Vegas so I'll be moderating a panel on. AI enabling Next Generation personalization, at at that show which I always look forward to to grocery shop and then a week later they're they're shop talk is moving their show their other stuff to Chicago so they're going to have their first, fall shop talk that will be in my backyard in Chicago so I'll be curious to see how if the world wants another another iteration of shop talk every year.
Scot
 
[3:18]Yeah give us the behind-the-scenes did you like throw down the gauntlet and said shop talk must move to Chicago or I'm not going to attend or and run all the speaking stuff.
Jason
 
[3:28]I basically did that with everything I told every client that they had come to Chicago I told shop talk and I told you you had to come here to record the podcast and yeah you'll note we haven't had a lot of podcasts and you know I still have the same 3 customers here I've always had.
Scot
 
[3:44]But you got to show them to me for at least that's a 1 w.
Jason
 
[3:46]I did but they really just added a show they're just looking for more Revenue so like it seems like it's probably not. Not just me but I feel like your LinkedIn feed has been more active than me and mostly with accolades for for the the fund that you helped kick off.
Scot
 
[4:05]Yeah yeah so the just to update everybody I'm in a post spiffy world so started spiffy in 2014 and then, you know decided to to we got to kind of north of a 60-ish million run rate which is plenty big lots of employees lots of things going on and I had started this little side hustle well first of all I started this thing for our little local ecosystem here called the tweener list in 2015 which was just a little passion project and then started a little fund around that called the tweener fund which invests in early stage startups so I've I've really enjoyed that and decided to, move on from spiffy and make this my full-time gig so have been really enjoying doing that and actually have. I'm sure you do this where you have a list of things you're kind of like want to learn about and you can hardly ever get to it and I've been doing a lot of that the last 4 weeks and 1 of the big 1 is AI I've been going really deep on AI and it's been been a lot of fun to play around with all the cool new stuff going on there and I got a couple interesting ideas I'm not going to reveal anything but there's some interesting if you think from a AI native remember how we used to talk about mobile native well now thinking AI native I think there's some interesting things that could happen in the world of e-commerce so I'm going to I may go back to thinking more about e-commerce so we'll see.
Jason
 
[5:23]Come on back though we're we're waiting for you the water is fine man they're they're for your point there's a lot of super interesting stuff the grocery shop will be fun a a show after that that I'm looking forward to is NRF because you know they have this Innovation Pavilion and they've kind of upped the the, rigger around recruiting exhibitors at The Innovation Pavilion this year and I think it's going to it's a big year for Innovation so, probably be a cool time for all of us to meet in the New York in January with global warming it's not even cold anymore.
Scot
 
[5:58]Not been there not too long ago and it's still pretty darn cold for this North Carolina.
Jason
 
[6:04]Oh okay fair enough fair enough I'm just last year was the first time it snowed in like 2 years in New York at at in her uh and then.
Scot
 
[6:10]Okay yeah yeah last time I remember trudging through like 6 inches to get to your hotel which was painfully far away.
Jason
 
[6:17]I mean that's yeah that's been my normal life so it's been weird that you haven't had to take the heavy coat to New York so although I wouldn't recommend that if you go to New York in January I'd bring that vote uh. And, I feel like in addition to everything else I know we're going to jump into the retail but all the Apple software updates dropped today so cool new icons and emojis and and delayed chats so I can have, like Emoji based chats hit Scott Wingo at every hour of the day now it's amazing.
Scot
 
[6:48]Nice I look forward to that at 4:00 a.m. I'll have my do not disturb on to counteract your your attack.
Jason
 
[6:53]Yeah although I may need you talk about new things you want to learn 1 of the things I want to learn is how to make Do Not Disturb work right in the the modern app like the system because I feel like all the focus modes have made it complicated.
Scot
 
[7:05]Yeah I have to have you know that that kind of funny YouTube where the dad puts on 6 seat belts that's me putting on do not disturb I have to do the physical thing check the moon do my watch hit D and D in a profile and then that's that that combination of things I don't know which of them does it but that seems to stop everything.
[7:28]
AI in Grocery Shopping
Jason
 
[7:23]Yes I feel like I'm in a similar boat but it would be interesting to figure out how to do it for as intended.
Scot
 
[7:29]Yeah or just we know it works so just keep doing it do so just give us a preview of grocery shop can AI do better recommendations than kind of the old school way we used to do it.
Jason
 
[7:42]So 1 would hope certainly it can do it at greater scale than we used to do it there's some anecdotal evidence that it's. Better it you know part of it I'm I'm curious to talk to some of these folks So So Meta will be on my panel. They they have a strong POV you know what's going on in the digital ad space right now is all the the ad platforms are trying to talk you into going hands off the wheel and turning over. The bidding to their AI engines and I would say at the moment it's an uneven playing field there like if I if I talk to my. Performance media folks they'll tell you that the the AI robots from some of the platforms are very effective and tend to outperform a manual bidding and on other platforms that they they wildly do not so.
Jason
 
[8:33]That it'll be interesting to kind of hear their perspective 1 of the panelists is hungryroot, which to me is a super interesting example they they're truly doing AI based recommendation so they're essentially they're a ger. That is mainly filling out your whole cart for you proactively with AI based. Recommendations so you manicure a Char a cart that they recommend to you versus you hunting and pecking for each individual item and putting it in your cart and they they have some pretty interesting sales metrics using that methodology so they're all in, there you might almost think of them as like the Stitch fix of food and so they'll they'll be interesting to hear, and then my friend Ben from Endeavor and Endeavor may be familiar to some listeners not to others they're the largest adult beverage and hospitality company in Australia. And so they they have a nationwide chain of beer and wine stores that are doing some really interesting personalization hubs and kind of Shifting all of their customer touch points to to 1 to 1 so. I'll be curious to hear how effective they all claim to be.
Scot
 
[9:47]How do these it seems like you're going to need some training data like how do they Kickstart that do they look at like your email or credit card data to kind of get an idea for what you like or they just kind of start you at a demographic Baseline and build from there or do you know.
Jason
 
[10:01]Yeah well so in many cases you've been a customer of theirs for a long time right so they have you you have a significant amount of personal data I mean Walmart launched a predictive cart feature, in January that's in beta so I think it's only available to a select group of. Of Walmart Plus members but yeah it you it's trained on all of th those members pass purchases leading up to the launch of that product. Um so I yeah good question what signals do they use for a net new customer but I think the first crop where customers where they they already had a significant history.
Scot
 
[10:40]Got it cool well that's gonna be a good panel riveting it's also pretty wild they have them so close together now that's like 10 days you're gonna have to kind of like Zip back home rest for a couple days and jump in.
Jason
 
[10:50]I I do I was going to zip back home anyway so it's not an inconvenience for me but I my heart does go out to all the the shop talk folks that that have responsibilities of both shows because that I'm certain is not fun for them.
Scot
 
[11:02]Cool which of the shop talks is bigger now the.
Jason
 
[11:09]Shop talk is still the biggest show that's their March show um and it's it's north of 10,000 people so it might have been like 11,000 this year I'm not sure they, release an official number so hopefully I'm not disclosing something proprietary and grocery shop is only about half that size. So think closer to 5 500 attendees and then this fall shop talk this will be the first time so so. All all bets are off I I certainly wish them no ill will but part of me thinks it's a it's a big lift to get people. To add yet another event to their schedules.
Scot
 
[11:48]Yeah maybe the Fallen will be more Regional like you know folks in the midwest or east.
Jason
 
[11:53]Yeah I mean that that would be my initial assumption but you know they've they've been able to build up some really good shows in the past so so you know we'll see how they do with this 1 I certainly, would like to see a good show in Chicago they're in as you would remember in the old days you know there was like internet retailer here which still exists but I would argue it's it's probably well past its prime. Problem is when you did the orientation and used to teach everyone how to do e-commerce on the first day.
Scot
 
[12:20]Amazon yeah that was fun that was they were like well you do this and I was like well how many people come and they're like I usually 100 and I did it and there's like 700 people say dude you vastly underestimated your crowd size at this thing the um.
Jason
 
[12:32]I know I know you're a big draw.
Scot
 
[12:34]Yeah well of course the uh and what was always funny is people would want to meet I forget what hotel it was either Hyatt, or a Hilton and there was 4 of them around that convention center and like No 1 could ever find each other at that that Hotel chain because they know 1 realized they all had the same name I'm sure that's still a problem. Was always funny to watch the chaos ensue.
Jason
 
[12:54]Yeah.
Scot
 
[12:55]The only thing works is in Las Vegas when you're at the Mandalay Bay when the hotel is called the hotel and the bars called the bar it's like a whose first kind of scenario trying to get.
Jason
 
[13:04]Yeah I'm sure they thought that was really clever when they.
Scot
 
[13:07]Yeah that was the worst worst naming.
Jason
 
[13:08]When they first named it yeah.
Scot
 
[13:11]Cool well you guys have been waiting for it and we are recording this mid-september all of our friends and Retail and e-commerce are making their final changes to their sites they're implementing their new features they're putting new vendors in place and going through the final QA test, before the big October code freeze so. This is when the Pod turns to really thinking about a holiday of 24 it's a fun to believe that we're already here this fast and Jason to tee that up let's set the table a little bit you put out a really interesting kind of adjacent Mega deck on LinkedIn that was really good and I thought maybe we could go through a couple slides of that and kind of tee up, you know how the year has gone so far and then that'll take us into kind of a little bit of a prediction of how holiday 24 is going to shape up.
Jason
 
[13:58]Yeah yeah yeah happy to do it thanks man so maybe setting the table. I don't want to go back and get too deep we'll put a link to the deck so anyone that wants it's like 54 pages of data visualizations about about the Commerce industry so anyone's welcome to download it and check for themselves but the the highest level metric that I like to think about is this thing that NRF calls core retail so that's, all of retail sales from the US Department of Commerce US Census Data uh except restaurants Gas and Automobiles and.
Jason
 
[14:33]If you go back in time and you say how how much does core retail grow year-over-year for the last 20 years core retail grew about 3.9% a year. And then of course we had this this huge anomaly more recently which was Co. And you know I like to joke that like well you know some people feel like oh man those were really hard years for retail what they forget is we mailed 5 trillion dollars in extra cash to everyone and didn't let them spend any of that on flights or Taylor Swift tickets. And so those were actually the greatest growth years in the history of retail like we like the the peak year was like 14% growth for core retail. So we had that this like Giant mountain of unusual growth 3 years that were twice as big as the normal 3.9% growth, and then 2023 happened and 2023 was right back to the average 3.9% again, and so now we're halfway through 2024 and we're actually below that average a little bit so we're at 3.4% growth year to date. Which is you know meaningfully off from 3.9% like that you know these are these are big numbers so that's 2.9 trillion dollars worth of sales year to date.
Jason
 
[15:50]And the you know.
[16:02]
Retail Growth Trends
Jason
 
[15:53]When we look at holiday I I mean we'll we'll talk about it in a minute but you know that's kind of setting the the table for retail for holiday but of course. People on this podcast are probably particularly interested in e-commerce and will know that historically at least in the modern era e-commerce has grown much faster. So the problem with talking about the average growth rate of e-commerce is of course it only started about 24 years ago and so it's. You know the the rate of growth has has decreased over time if you look at the last 24 years e-commerce is growing 17% a year versus that 3.9% for retail. Over the last 10 years right before coid e-commerce was growing at 12.4% a year.
Jason
 
[16:37]So I kind of tell people think about you know e-commerce typically growing at 12% a year retail typically growing at 4% a year is kind of the. The the basic ratios so 4 times faster but this year 2024, retail is only growing at 3.4% and e-commerce is only growing at 7.5% so still twice as fast growth but a meaningful slowdown from the, historic average and you know at the risk of of giving away a spoiler. I I don't think that's like some bounce because of a spike during Co I actually think it's just an indication of the maturing of. Of e-commerce and e-commerce is a you know increasingly big chunk of of the whole retail pie it's. E-commerce is 21.8% of core retail so almost 22% so you know we'll spend over 7 trillion dollars this year and you know well over a trillion of it will be e-commerce.
Scot
 
[17:38]Interesting cool so that's the full year.
Jason
 
[17:41]Yeah well.
Scot
 
[17:43]Basically kind of an average year.
Jason
 
[17:45]So so last, yeah so so well so last year e-commerce had already started slow down it it grew again the average was about 12% it grew 10% last year and we're only growing 7.5% year to date this year.
Scot
 
[17:59]Okay got it okay.
Jason
 
[18:01]But. As I keep pointing out to people the story depending on who you are the story is either vastly better or worse than that those industry averages I just shared because the real story of of retail in 2024 is. This this concept of bifurcation right that there are 5 retailers that are vastly outperforming those industry averages. And they are eating up all of the growth in the industry so these 5 retailers represent 51% of all that growth so if you're 1 of those 5 retailers, you're having a great year if you are not 1 of those 5 retailers you're having a way worse than average year in in most cases so that's, Amazon which alone represents 16% of all retail growth it's Walmart which represents 15% of all retail growth, and it's it's Tik Tok which, you know was well under a billion dollars in sales last year and is trending towards twenty billion dollars in sales this year so they're the fastest growing retail, in the history of mankind and then rounding out these top 5 Growers are the the fastest growing return history of mankind from the last 2 years T-Mobile and shien so, it's kind of T-Mobile Sheen Tik Tok Walmart and Amazon's world and the rest of us are just living in it which is you know somewhat alarming for the rest of retail.
Scot
 
[19:26]Yeah yeah definitely is it seems like those the chinese-based guys seems like they're taking share from somebody but it's not Amazon is it dollar stores because it's kind of like this convenience-oriented lower price kind of stuff right.
Jason
 
[19:42]Yeah so it it it it's it's inexpensive variety Goods the, it it very likely is taking share from from the the dollar stores the dollar stores have not fared well which historically, you know there's there's some economic headwinds there's a thing going on in the United States that I I like to call A vibe session which means, some of the the economic fundamentals are actually pretty decent but people are really, consumer sentiment is down and people are really cutting back on their spending there's a lot of evidence that people are trading down and and trying to be more frugal, and that kind of climate normally has favored the dollar stores and yet you know they're they're definitely performing below these, these industry averages so certainly a chunk of of the Tik Tok team mushy and growth um is coming at their expense. Some of the sheen growth is coming at the expense of luxury which you know historically luxury has been been insulated from downturns in the market but you know we're starting to see. Some softness in their earnings and for sure softness in their guidance. So you know the you know people that would have bought more designer stuff maybe they're still buying some designer things but they're mixing it in with really affordable fashion from. From shien like I I am sure Amazon is losing some sales to Tik Tok shops that they would like to have but for your point.
Jason
 
[21:08]Amazon still you know growing much faster than the rest of the market and so yeah it's not it's not eroding Amazon's any share it's just eroding their Tam.
[21:28]
Concerns for Holiday 2024
Scot
 
[21:19]Got it okay so that's the setup so e-commerce has slowed down a bit retails kind of doing its thing what what does that mean for holiday.
Jason
 
[21:29]Yeah so I I have become Debbie Downer I am concerned about holiday this year, so if we just kind of extrapolate out these Trends again 3.4% growth is below our historic average so if something dramatically didn't turn around if consumer sentiment didn't get a lot better. For this holiday you would expect this to be a slightly soft. Holiday and I I really think this trend of winners and losers is likely to continue through holidays so I think you're going to see a handful of retailers perform really well holiday at the expense of everyone else and I. I I think on average that's going to mean that revenue is kind of similar to traditional holiday growth. But I I suspect that that's that margins, will be even further eroded than usual so so usually for Holiday retail grows about 4.3% e-commerce grows at 12.9% I don't think we'll see either of those numbers for holiday this year and I think.
Jason
 
[22:34]You know if if retail grows at 3.7% and Ecom grows at 8% you know I still think you're going to see Amazon Walmart and Tik Tok grab, disproportionate share of that holiday spend which is going to be bad news, for a lot of other folks and those are just kind of the macro Trends you have to layer in that that there's a couple of reasons to to be worried about this holiday regardless of the trends going into this holiday so. We have a different calendar a number of days in the holiday season every year, and this is our worst year this is the year when we have the fewest days and holiday which actually you know historically does depress sales if there's fewer days to shop then then we sell less stuff and so this is the shortest holiday season that we ever get, and historically an election year is not favorable to Holiday spend right so traditionally there's some some anxiety and you know. Competition for attention, that plays into these November elections that impacts holiday and I I think you know this will be the most polarized election ever and so I think it's you know no matter what the outcome is half the country is going to be pretty depressed and that that likely you know translates into not an awesome holiday so so we got some things working against us.
Scot
 
[23:53]Yeah so if that's the headwinds I'll throw in a Tailwind so as a our celebrated CNBC junkie the all they talk about is the Fed meeting tomorrow where you know it's pretty clear the fed's going to lower interest rates and the big question is is it going to be a quarter point or half a point I think I I I'm not a prognost prognosticator on that I think whatever they do it's going to be wildly popular and relief a lot of this kind of interest rate pressure we've everything's been on so even if it's only a quarter point I think it'll be somewhat euphoric for the market and for for hopefully for consumers to feel like interest rates are coming down a little bit so maybe that'll like bump start some house buying and selling and they'll be a little bit more liquidity in the market so so I'm going to think of that as more of a Tailwind so there's some positivity going on there do you worry about the election because I think it's just going to take forever to figure out who won and, everyone's going to contest it and it's gonna be like this unknown thing for a very long time so we'll see how that goes.
Jason
 
[24:55]Yeah and you live in a swing state so I can only imagine what's happening to your media.
Scot
 
[24:59]Yeah we just kind of we can't even like the male is an inch thick full of like Gunk and you kind of have to sort through all the stupidity I'm not a political person to get to like you know the bill and make sure you pay it and that kind of stuff and then the you know, at the TV is just crazy but thank goodness I'm not in Pennsylvania I think they're getting just totally hammered right now.
Jason
 
[25:18]Yeah probably so and In fairness while we're covering Tailwind like this could be a headwind or a Tailwind but like I will say in general the macros are getting a little better right so inflation has been steadily coming down the 1 the most stubborn version of inflation had been. In in this core retail category is is food and even food you know they're all down below 3% which like pre-pandemic they were kind of in that, 2.1 2.3% and the FEDS sort of stated goal was to keep inflation between 2 and 3% so, you know we still had all the pain of the high prices over the last couple of years but like. Prices really have started to come down so on the 1 hand that helps consumer sentiment you know just like in announcement from the FED would and so that that's favorable you know most of the jobs reports have been you know pretty good there's there there's some decent news that in theory should make people feel better, the flip side is inflation going down actually hurts retail sales because the stuff they sell is cheaper and so when, comping with low inflation against a previous year of higher inflation it actually can make your comps more challenging. So yeah it's a a complicated mix of stuff going on.
Scot
 
[26:35]Yeah does that if you boil all that down do you end up with a like a semi prediction like if your clients were to say to you give me a number what what do you spit out.
Jason
 
[26:45]Yeah I I'm saying buckle up I normal retail holiday growth is 4.3% and I think we're retail growth is going to be below 4 this year. Margins vary wildly depending on the category but I think average margins are going to be down across the board like there there are going to be some some outliers like the the interest rates have really been brutal on the Home Improvement guys right like if you know people can't get loans they're trapped in their house uh they don't buy new houses they spend a lot less in Home Depot and Lowe's and I think it's pretty likely Buy holiday that there's some, some movement in the in the interest rates which like at the at the very least is going to Goose. That housing market which is going to have a trickle on effect to the the Home Improvement guys so I I suspect they'll have. Better holiday than they have the last last couple of years but overall I I'm not optimistic, you know with the caveat that some some really good operators or some people with a really clever model like the Amazon Walmart Tik toks are are likely gonna you know have a really good run this holiday.
Scot
 
[27:51]Okay cool I will I do not have a prediction so I'll stick with yours.
Jason
 
[27:58]Usually that doesn't work out well for you but thanks.
Scot
 
[28:01]I have to go review our it's been so long I have to go look at our New Year's predictions because there's always start to be coming to fruition here soon.
Jason
 
[28:09]Yeah yeah yeah I've kept half an eye on some of them and there's there's going to be some some are going to come down to the wire some I I would have thought were safer but like you know surprisingly Amazon's pretty slow getting their their AI stuff out the door so we'll see.
Scot
 
[28:23]Yeah yeah there's the so this is a sidebar that we didn't really prepare for but did you see they tried to build their own and they kind of couldn't and they had to punt and they're using and. Not anthropology the 1 that starts know they're using anthropic.
Jason
 
[28:41]Anthropic that's right yes I did see that um.
Scot
 
[28:44]Yeah so that's got to be embarrassing I mean they invested like some bazillions of dollars.
Jason
 
[28:47]To I mean Amazon is kind of a not invented here company so like when they have to give up on the internal initiative and and rent someone else's Tech that that probably doesn't feel very good.
Scot
 
[28:59]Yeah I made the mistake of changing my action button on my phone to the chat GPT voice and then I've been I switched from Google in my search to perplexity so I've gotten used to asking these pretty complex questions and then I chat with Alexa and I feel like I'm talking to a kindergarten I'm like I'll even like ask it something you know play this song from this album by that artist and it loses itself halfway through half the time I feel like it's brain is melting and it's just like getting Dumber even though I know it's at a Baseline.
Jason
 
[29:29]Yeah no absolutely and and I would say it's even more acute in my household because I live with a 9-year-old um and and his default is that, it should know all of this stuff right and it asks he asks these really complicated questions and I like can't tell you how many times a day I have to say to my son she's not going to know that.
Scot
 
[29:50]Why dad why.
Jason
 
[29:54]But but for your point hand him like, you know he basically lives to play Roblox and watch you to Awful YouTube videos um and I can hand him chat gbt 40 and like it's about as entertaining as Roblox to him which is amazing.
[30:27]
The De Minimis Provision
Scot
 
[30:13]Gotcha does uh so you mentioned Teemu and all that jazz you have been tracking this rule that allows China to use our postal system to send stuff free what's going on with that puppy.
Jason
 
[30:27]Yeah so that is famously called the Dominus provision and it's this rule that got. Put into the US Customs Enforcement in like 1938 and the idea was hey if people are going to ship stuff in the United States like we want to charge tax on it we want to charge duties and we want to have rules about what kinds of things from a safety standpoint and from a a human interest standpoint can be imported into our country right and so so normally you ship something from another country it has to go through inspections it has to go through duties but gosh there's this new kind of peer-to-peer marketplaces and there's eBay sellers selling stuff in London to people in the US and we don't have enough Customs agents to inspect all these little, packages that Scott Wingo is helping people sell on the internet right so we're going to pass a rule called the Dominus provision which is if you ship something that has less than 5 dollars of value, you don't have to declare it you don't have to pay taxes on it it's not getting inspected by anyone and it was really just a labor savings for for the the Customs agents in like you know originally in 1939 when like it was it was an e-commerce it was mail order back then.
Jason
 
[31:44]But in like 1996 that that. 5 Dollar limit got bumped to Dollars and then in 2016 the hundred dollars got bumped to $800 and that really opened the floodgates that's when companies like shien and tiemoue figured out that hey instead of filling up a container of stuff, and shipping that container to the US and having to pay C duties on that container and having that container come over in a boat and take a long time to get here I can put each. Sale in an individual envelope, and Air Freight it to the US and it'll be under the 800 hour minimum so I won't have to pay duties on it I won't have to get it inspected. And you know these these factories in China, and these these marketplaces of these factories in China you know quickly built a huge business shipping individual packages to Americans right and so that's.
Jason
 
[32:48]You know today they they quote unquote exploit what we call the Dominus provision. To to ship all those packages right and so there's been a lot of complaints by people that have to compete with the, the those those you know cheap Imports and there's been a lot of saber rattling in Congress about how you know this is exploitation and all these things, and so last week Biden proposed, that he was going to issue an executive order that goods from China no longer qualify for the de minimis exception and so what that would mean is regardless of the value. Every single package that comes from China would have to go through customs would have to be inspected would have to meet all of our import requirements and so, you know some people are looking at that and saying oh man that's going to put a huge dent that's going to make shien goods and Tik Tok goods and tiemoue goods more expensive. And that might rebalance you know all of these trends that that you and I have just been been talking about. I regrettably am a little more skeptical that it's going to have a huge impact.
Jason
 
[33:58]Couple of other sort of interesting facts to know about this Dominus thing so first of all. Not going to shock anyone there's a lot of american-based companies that are now taking full advantage of this de minimis Clause right so.
Jason
 
[34:12]Not going to name names on the podcast but there's a lot of big sellers that are us-based that import containers of goods to Mexico and then put those, unpack those containers in Mexico and ship, the goods in individual packages from Mexico to the US so they get relatively fast delivery and they get to bypass all the duties and tariffs and you know that's that that's being done by by a number of like big famous, uh retailers and brands in the US so this kind of Dominus rule if it if it affects goods from China. I guess the first thing I would expect to see is Tik Tok and team who are going to start shipping containers to Mexico and importing them from another country right and so we're going to get kind of a a wacko, situation and if you if you Google section 321 which is the the. Part of the the Customs law that that that amendments provision is in section 321 shipping you're going to find that there's dozens of 3pls that specialize in in doing this for you so. I think it's going to be harder to knock down than 1 executive order but the bigger problem is. Tik Tok to and shien together are by some estimates sending about 900,000 packages a day.
Jason
 
[35:33]2 of the United States and so if you could magically wave a wand and say all 900,000 of those packages have to be inspected before they can come in. Think what that would do to the rate of goods flowing into the United States right like all everybody's Imports all the containers would get slowed down because, we have the same number of Customs agents we've always had an executive order can't hire a bunch of new Customs agents that would require new budget from Congress and that seems a lot less likely. So just like the reason the Dominus was there is we didn't have enough people to look at all these packages and that was when they're way less packages than there are now so. If we could somehow like do away with Dominus like would it, reduce the number of shipments probably but it still would be way more shipments it would still overwhelm well customs and would likely suddenly mean all those goods that are I guess holiday Goods for the most part are already on the way are already here but like, it it would probably have a dramatic effect on on q1 availability of goods because it would just gum Up Customs so while I I like the ex the spirit of trying to, update the laws to have a More Level Playing Field I kind of doubt in practice that 1 Executive Order is is going to fix this super complicated problem.
Scot
 
[36:51]Yeah now that we're through earning season did you hear anything else interesting in earnings that we were not able to do an Amazon's earning podcast there wasn't really anything super exciting other than. You know kind of more of the same I think you know the AWS did better than a lot of people thought which was good, and that everyone's really focused on that because of the AI stuff everyone's worried Amazon's going to lose share but they seem to be holding their own and then e-commerce and, the retails were were kind of in line so they didn't really slow or speed up, if you have any there was a little color around Prime day but nothing Earth shattering any other interesting things from earnings Seasons you saw.
Jason
 
[37:31]Yeah so so again like what you've you've kind of had 3 kinds of retailers right you had those 5 retailers that I mentioned only only 2 of them have like earnings calls in the US which is, Amazon and Walmart. Tik Tok is owned by bike dance which has has earnings calls in China and team was owned by poor which has earnings calls in China she and is trying to go public they're trying to list in in London so we haven't really seen any, any earnings calls from them so they they've had interesting things you've actually had T-Mobile stock took a pretty big hit after their earnings because they, reported great sales but by dance like lowered his guidance and part of it is I believe. In in response to how much share Tik Tok shops has captured so this is 1 of I think 1 of the most interesting stories of the year is.
Jason
 
[38:23]For probably as long as I've known you Scott like we've always talked about social commerce and people are always talking about like. Hey there's all this attention on Facebook are people going to be able to sell Goods on Facebook and just not even need e-commerce sites anymore and the narrative we've always had is man it's been tried dozens and dozens of times and it so far hasn't worked it seems like. Us consumers don't want to shop on their social platforms they want to interact with their friends on their social platforms and they want to shop on their shop platforms, but the 1 place in the world where this does seem to be working is China where, pendo Duo on Alibaba had been you know pretty successful 10-cent had been pretty successful with with social commerce and, that narrative is kind of over right now because Tik Tok shops is selling twenty billion dollars worth of stuff direct to Consumer and Tik Tok is. Really winning with consumers attention and especially with younger consumer consumers attention so you know.
Jason
 
[39:21]Gen Z Shoppers are are gen Z consumers are spending like an hour a day, on Tik Tok like the Olympics didn't do very well because nobody watches long form video on television anymore like they're all watching all this this short form content on Tik Tok and Tik Tok has been able to turn that attention, into sales so much so that you know the most successful e-commerce site on the planet while Amazon has has kind of said like hey we can't beat him so we're joining him right so Amazon announced, a deal with Tik Tok where you can run an ad on Tik Tok have direct Commerce in that ad and check out with your Amazon credentials and have your order fulfilled by Amazon Prime, in an ad on the Tik Tok platform so that is super interesting and Amazon has said and we're going to start shipping Goods direct from China just like Tik Tok and T-Mobile and shien so they've announced that they're going to,
[40:27]
TikTok's Impact on E-commerce
Jason
 
[40:19]direct to Consumer from factory model you know presumably to take advantage of some of this these same de de minimis.
Jason
 
[40:27]Provisions that we we talked about earlier so it's kind of interesting to see Amazon have to kind of match some of the, the offerings and play with some of these Frenemies you know historically you know that's that's gone the other way right like it was it was the old Legacy retards that were having to begrudgingly or brands that had to begrudgingly, moved to Amazon so interesting to see Amazon moving to Tik Tok so that was a super interesting.
Jason
 
[40:56]Sort of evolution this year I'm going to be really interested to see whether the, the Tik Tok thing you know it's mostly inexpensive impulse Goods at the moment and, you know can that get traction with staples will people buy more premium Goods we're starting to see more and more Brands I just spent some time with, Keurig which owns you know a bunch of the coffee brands and they're now doing direct Commerce on Tik Tok shops so it kind of went from all unbranded stuff on Chinese factories to, you know we're starting to see branded merchandise in the Tik Tok shop so, that super fascinating and then on a much more scale 1 other thing that really jumped out of me in the investor call after the Amazon earnings is the Amazon CFO talked about.
Jason
 
[41:43]The softness that people have seen in the drug channel right and so Walgreens write a CVS haven't been having a very good run lately and and he called out that like Amazon probably got a boost in sales because the the Walgreens so helpfully locked all the products behind cages and that like uh. You know was an impediment to sales at Walgreens and caused a lot of those sales to happen on Amazon instead and so you know if you remember last year a lot of retailers were claimed you know crying about shrinking complaining a lot about shoplifting you're not hearing a lot of conversation and earnings calls about shrink this year. And now you know Amazon saying like man we're we're a beneficiary of all the the eroded customer experiences, that that have resulted from an overreaction to shrink.
Scot
 
[42:34]Hu yeah I saw there's a CVS has a thing where you can actually tap with your phone I guess it has an NFC chip in it and so I imagine you have to have the CVS app and be logged in and then you can tap to get into that cage so at least you don't have to wait an hour for someone to wander by and and get you your your pack of gum.
Jason
 
[42:55]Yeah which I have mixed feelings about on the 1 hand I really admire The Innovation and that's a clever way to reduce the friction if you are going to put all these products and product jail which is what I call those those cases the, the pro you know the the argument would be, in CVS's case you have to be a member of their Affinity program and have their app on your phone in order to unlock the cases and so like in practice essentially what that means is you know all of America used to be able to shop at CVS now it's a members-only store right like now it's it's it's essentially Costco like you you have to be a member and give them all your data or you're going to have really inconvenient access to the razor blades and so you know, I could see that going either way like if if you compare it to Walgreens or Raid where you don't get that option like it might be looked at favorably but if you kind of look at it in big picture and say wait a minute you're going to lock up all this stuff and then you're going to make me be a member of your Affinity program in order to, to just be able to do what I've always done or at least since the 1920s when Piggly Wiggly opened up all this stuff.
Jason
 
[44:01]I you know I could imagine consumers not not reacting super well to that, I don't actually know if the CVS is is like Bluetooth or NFC but you did bring up another point. IOS 18 launch today and 1 of the cool features in iOS 18 is they have apple is for the first time opened up the NFC chip to third-party apps so. Under iOS 18 it would be possible for CVS to use that NFC chip to unlock the, the uh their their smart locks that would not have been possible in the previous operating system so that's a fun Commerce innovation, that came to uh Apple today, and I haven't seen any announcements yet but I'll I'll be surprised if we don't see some some cool evolution of some of the digital wallets to take advantage of that new feature as well.
Scot
 
[44:50]Pretty cool yeah so anything else before we wrap up that that you want to prep listeners for as we go into holiday.
Jason
 
[44:58]No no I feel like we covered a lot of ground again I'm I'm super sorry on my behalf and and Scott's behalf that we've been a little sporadic with the shows we really appreciate all the kind words people have, been sending our way and for sure I take it as a compliment that people are mad at me that we haven't been putting out shows so hopefully we'll we'll be able to find some good Windows throughout the rest of the year to get some, some shows out there I you know certainly want to do a recap after grocery shop coming up and we'll certainly want to cover holiday and maybe we can do some. Go old school and do some live shows from interrupt this year if we can get you to come to to New York Scott.
Scot
 
[45:35]Yeah yeah the we'll look at the weather and see how it goes.
Jason
 
[45:39]Yeah yeah yeah if if you're an investor in his fund use use that leverage to pressure him to do it.
Scot
 
[45:45]Hey that hurts.
Jason
 
[45:46]And if you're not an investor nurse fund why the heck not.
Scot
 
[45:49]Heck yeah between your fund.com come on aboard.
Jason
 
[45:52]Exactly well Scott that's probably going to be a great place to leave it if you're super ecstatic that we are back on the air feel free to jump on iTunes and give us that 5-star review we want to refreshen those up and. Until next time happy commercing.
 

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