I am back! I know a lot of people have been upset that I haven't been able to do a podcast in almost 2 weeks. The reason I've been absent… I just haven't been feeling well. I've been coughing a lot and and haven't been up for doing a podcast - I'm doing one today, though. I'm still a little bit sick… but I figure it's been long enough, so I have to talk a little bit about what's on my mind.
Dollar Index Trending Lower
First of all, there hasn't been that much activity, I guess, in the markets over this time period. The U.S. dollar has generally been weaker. It has been trending down. It hasn't really broken down yet, but it is going lower. In fact, the dollar index closed today near 97.69. so that is lower than it had been. Remember, a few weeks ago, the dollar index was above 99. So the dollar is trending lower.
Interest Rates Up - Bond Prices Down
Interest rates are actually moving higher. Bond prices are going down. The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury now is at 2.26, and I think this is significant because it really shows the problems that are building in the economy because the dollar is weakening and interest rates are rising. That is going to mean higher consumer prices, it's going to mean higher borrowing costs; now of course, the Federal Reserve is doing everything it can to artificially suppress interest rates. One of the stories that I've read several times over the last couple of weeks is how the Federal Reserve is having to do more repurchase agreements; having to increase the size of the amount of Treasuries they're buying in the market. I didn't see that in today's balance sheet numbers; the balance sheet was up only about 2 billion over the prior week. But I have a feeling that the number is going to be much, much higher than that when we get it a week from today.
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