9-7-2020 Hot Topic: August 2020 Ainsworth Advisors Discussion

Announcement by GSEs… assessing risk of the refinance market..We’ve seen a tightening of credit due to the current crisis… Fannie and Freddie have taken a bigger share…Opportunity for an increased refinance market… at 50 basis points, the cash position will increase rapidly…The flood of refinances, margins at their widest levels… so it’s a 50 basis point tax on refinances…The academic view vs the view from inside… understanding the impact of a decision…There’s a finite amount of capital available… lenders need to adjust their lending… impact on Independent Mortgage Bankers…The importance of the relationship between Independent Mortgage Bankers and Warehouse lenders… you could see the availability of funds from Warehouse Lenders constrict in the next 6 -12 months…A look at monthly volume growth at GinnieMae… churning the portfolios…Investors are reluctant… it’s a domestic market, not an international market…They’re making money… you’ve got to be able to support your infrastructure… because this will go away…A look at the rising FICO scores and the age bracket 50+ in the market…There’s a huge pipeline of delinquencies that are about to hit… delinquencies tied to unemployment rate…There is an increase in delinquencies ahead of us… period. Refinances are propping up the current market…100 million Americans rent their housing now… 28.9 – 39.9% are at risk of eviction in 2020…Only those who are forward-thinking are preparing for when the bottom is going to fall out… Announcement by GSEs… assessing risk of the refinance market..We’ve seen a tightening of credit due to the current crisis… Fannie and Freddie have taken a bigger share…Opportunity for an increased refinance market… at 50 basis points, the cash position will increase rapidly…The flood of refinances, margins at their widest levels… so it’s a 50 basis point tax on refinances…The academic view vs the view from inside… understanding the impact of a decision…There’s a finite amount of capital available… lenders need to adjust their lending… impact on Independent Mortgage Bankers…The importance of the relationship between Independent Mortgage Bankers and Warehouse lenders… you could see the availability of funds from Warehouse Lenders constrict in the next 6 -12 months…A look at monthly volume growth at GinnieMae… churning the portfolios…Investors are reluctant… it’s a domestic market, not an international market…They’re making money… you’ve got to be able to support your infrastructure… because this will go away…A look at the rising FICO scores and the age bracket 50+ in the market…There’s a huge pipeline of delinquencies that are about to hit… delinquencies tied to unemployment rate…There is an increase in delinquencies ahead of us… period. Refinances are propping up the current market…100 million Americans rent their housing now… 28.9 – 39.9% are at risk of eviction in 2020…Only those who are forward-thinking are preparing for when the bottom is going to fall out…