The most straightforward vision for developing transformative AI that I can imagine working with very little innovation in techniques is what I’ll call human feedback[1] on diverse tasks (HFDT):
Train a powerful neural network model to simultaneously master a wide variety of challenging tasks (e.g. software development, novel-writing, game play, forecasting, etc) by using reinforcement learning on human feedback and other metrics of performance.
HFDT is not the only approach to developing transformative AI,[2] and it may not work at all.[3] But I take it very seriously, and I’m aware of increasingly many executives and ML researchers at AI companies who believe something within this space could work soon.
Unfortunately, I think that if AI companies race forward training increasingly powerful models using HFDT, this is likely to eventually lead to a full-blown AI takeover(i.e. a possibly violent uprising or coup by AI systems). I don’t think this is a certainty, but it looks like the best-guess default absent specific efforts to prevent it.
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