If Tesla can sell 10M cars in 2030 at $35K, with a 40% ROIC, a 40X multiple on that would be $2.8T. Discounted back at 8%, Mayur comes up with a fair value of $1,167 per share for Tesla's vehicle business. Tesla already has a 23% ROIC today, despite numerous growth tailwinds. This puts them far above auto industry norms, and validates the companies valuation as a technology play/disrupter. Even at Mayur's $2.8T valuation, he is assuming minimal robotaxi revenue, and nothing from energy or Tesla Bots ... imagine if any of those moonshots work.
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