In this latest OIES podcast James Henderson talks to Bill Farren-Price about some of the key themes that will influence energy markets in 2025. They start by discussing the potential impact of the arrival of President Donald Trump in the White House for a second term, focussing on likely geopolitical and economic outcomes and how they might affect energy markets. Following on from that theme they look at how US LNG might emerge as an even greater force in global gas markets and whether it may be used as a geopolitical tool. The discussion then moves onto the broader outlook for the gas market in 2025 and the likely direction of prices in a relatively tight market. The future of Russian gas, and the possibility of a return to Europe if the war in Ukraine ends this year, is another potentially important theme, while Russia’s interaction with the OPEC+ group will also be key. The podcast looks at the outlook for oil markets and considers the ability of OPEC to manage price volatility during the year, before moving onto the ever-growing influence of China as a major source of hydrocarbon demand but also as a driver of energy transition technology and development. This leads to a discussion about the role of China in energy diplomacy, particularly as the US has once again pulled out of the Paris Agreement, which more broadly raises the question as to whether the COP process can retain its influence, with COP30 being a critical marker when countries should confirm greater ambition to reduce emissions.
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